Exponential Growth or Silence?

I’ve been thinking a lot about exponential growth lately, not surprising given that I’ve been working with Ray Kurzweil on the launch of his new book The Singularity is Near…..(which you’ll notice I’ve blogged about several times over the past couple of months).

When a right brain thinks about exponential growth however, it isn’t quite the same way a scientist, mathematician, futurist or engineer thinks about it.

Stewart Brand, who introduced Ray at the LONG NOW event last week asked the question: as we move towards the singularity, what ‘should’ still be slow? Ray pondered for a moment and then said, “not very much.” Some in the audience thought about logical responses to this answer, like sex, solitude and meditation. But, even meditation, says Ray, we’ll be able to ‘do’ faster than we’ve been able to do before. Everyone of course laughed but actually, this will likely in fact be true.

At first, this bothered me, despite the lightness and humor in it. And yet, after contemplating what ‘could be possible’ within and beyond the singularity, perhaps what he was trying to say is that in the art of following the path of least resistance, things that bring us peace today may require even less effort in the future.

Perhaps……

I thought about the stint in my old upstate New York ‘hood’ recently, the same part of the country that some of Richard Russo’s novels are based on. I thought about the human connection, the ‘slowness’ of the world around me……My business continued to operate at the same speed it did on the West Coast and yet, everything else around me slowed down – significantly.

Joe the Plumber walked up just when I needed him; I didn’t even have to make a call. The garbage guys took every box and bag I dumped on the curbside whereas in San Francisco, if I exceed my allotment of one medium sized bag, I’m charged $5 a pop. My cousin Rick and I had a short but wonderful moment at a local diner sharing a “death to-the-heart” hot dog with everything on it for a wopping $1.35. Did I mention the below a buck cup of coffee?

Life in essence had stood still and there was something as magical about that stillness as the magic I experience from the vast examples of progress in my ‘other life,’ where this rapid pace of growth becomes so integrated into our lives, that often, we don’t even notice it. If that is the case, how will we know when we have reached the Singularity or will we need to transport Joe the Plumber into ‘the other life’ to realize how far we have progressed?

I think about inventions, ones which I noticed at the precise time I first experienced them and thought ‘wow,’ I can’t believe I’m able to do this. Google oddly enough was not one of them, perhaps because the accuracy and capability of what Google was able to do on day one has advanced so significantly over time. Clearly, the power of search engines has dramatically changed the way we interact with the world and participate, i.e., through searching for a topic of interest or a restaurant in a new city we’re planning to visit.

eBay and Amazon were ‘wows,’ for me, as was the ability to download music from Napster and LiveWire in the early days. When I first saw someone do this, there was a feeling of disbelief: how is this done? where does this music or data come from?

I was introduced to the iPod later than most and experienced the same if not greater ‘wow’ than from the Napster revolution………thousands and thousands of songs at my finger tips in whatever category I choose and more importantly, available for me to listen to through any speaker system I plug it into, anywhere in the world. And, all of this power, all of this amazing entertainment is available in a device I could throw in my purse or back pocket.

Talk about expodential growth. Cell phones, HDTV, laptops, mobile devices, frequency and ease of global air travel, communication and healthcare in third world countries, the price and quality of AIDS drugs five years ago versus what we have today ….the list goes on.

I too marvel.

And yet, the embrace of a community, the group of people in your life that remain constant, the peace that comes from knowing that the same neighbors still live in the same houses they lived in forty years ago……in my Richard Russo small town, that in fact, still holds true. Andy Griffith baby – old America still exists in many parts of the country.

Expodential growth. While Moore’s Law may dwindle, expodential growth will continue. It’s a necessary and regardless of mankind’s comfort level of what transpires in the next three decades, we will accelerate at an incredible pace. For us to accelerate at the speed at which Kurzweil predicts, one has to have a non-linear view. It’s inevitable despite our natural tendancy to hang on to a more comfortable view, or make predictions based on the past hundred years. We’re evolving and discovering more than we ever thought possible a century ago.

I too marvel.

And yet.

So, back to Stewart’s question. What should be kept slow? People want to talk about sex: how will sex fit into the singularity? Will sex be better or remove the human factor so much that it turns into an experience we can not possibly imagine with the resources and emotional capabilities we have today.

In the not so distant future, virtual reality experiences will enhance our senses to such a degree, that smell, touch and taste may be incorporated into a program that we customize. Our virtual reality experiences may ‘feel’ more ‘real’ than the physical connection we have with another human being today……only with added benefits, such as the ability to swap places with your partner and become ‘them’ for awhile, or someone else entirely.

It intrigues me and as a creature of adventure more than habit, I’m curious.

And yet.

I drove around my little upstate NY town several times during my visit, weaving in and out of small narrow streets, many of which have an increasing number of decrepit houses lining their exterior. While my ‘wow’ over Napsterization and iPod-like technology remains great, do we not experience a ‘greater wow’ over the smallest of things. You know, that big book of small and wonderful things that require a little self discovery on our part?

I noticed the decay of a building which I soon realized, used to be a Dunkin Donuts when I was a teenager, the same Dunkin Donuts I put twenty hours a week in during night shift at 17.

While the ‘wow’ had to do with destruction rather than creation, there was something inspirational in believing in a process…..believing that its not really decay at all, but transition from one era to another, like watching history unfold through a microscope, and gaining insight from a memory that you may have once held dear. And now, you know that the memory can become something else and as something else, you’re okay with ‘it’ whatever that may be.

You connect, you cherish and then you move on. Moving on requires letting go of the old memory however, something as humans, we have a hard time doing.

We (humans), starve for connection. We starve for meaning……so much more so than growth. And yet we need both to survive. One without the other isn’t enough; together they define who we are and more importantly, who we become.

Ah yes, expodential growth. I continue to follow the trends and patterns that are highlighted in the graphs and charts of product evolution, advancements in medicine, technology and average life expectancy. ‘Wow.’

But no, hang on, take me back to that charming place where we…….., bring me back, just for a moment, so I can cherish a distant memory, rather than a recent advancement…….please…..

I hear a church bell on a hot summer day, the distant voices recounting family sagas in a rural blueberry patch, a first kiss under a neighbor’s oak tree, the murmur of a speed boat engine on a silent lake before the sun has had a chance to rise, tea at undesignated times just because it was time for kitchen chatter, the scratchiness of old 78s and 45s of your favorites songs playing on an upright record player that required two large men to move.

Stick in hand. Dance at play. Song in mind.

Jar. Move. Bang. Shutter. Clank. “Wake up dear.” I wipe my eyes, preparing for a clear view of the last reflection. Silent Lake? No, 500 messages waiting for me on my desktop, my cell phone, my landline, my mobile device……Time for human connection? No, that can wait until tomorrow. The future is here and the age of singularity is coming. Let it go. Let it go.

Tag: Ray Kurzweil, Tag: exponentialgrowth, Tag: Singularity

AlwaysOn: More Communities

Canada.com interviews AlwaysOn's Tony Perkins, yet the title suggests it was written four years ago, rather than in 2005. Old lead, but a good overview of AlwaysOn and their objectives moving forward nevertheless.

According to the article, they'll be looking to raise $2 million for their new project and its goal? allow users to tap into social networking platforms and jump from community to community.....

Perkins says revenue will come from "selling custom versions to companies that want to start a blog-based media site and corporations that want to enhance their brand through blogging".....and that users will get a free version of a blog and share in the advertising revenue that they generate.

Google & NASA Team Up

Here's an odd combination in one sentence......turns out that its actually an announcement.... overview in Forbes on Google and NASA teaming up here.

Says Schmidt in the article: Google shares a common desire to bring a universe of information to people around the world with NASA, which recently unveiled plans to make another moon landing by 2020.

Further explanation behind the why: "Google's engineers will be able to pick NASA's brains for ideas on supercomputing design, which could help the company in its efforts to create products such as 3-D maps," using Google Earth as one concrete example we've already seen.

Engadget on FREE411

News on FREE411 makes the Engadget blog.

CNET on the Singularity

Declan McCullagh of CNET News, presents an excellent overview on client Ray Kurzweil's latest thoughts and new book. Entitled Ray Kurzweil deciphers a brave new world, how can you not want to read on.

Thankfully, they use a fabulous visual rather than the distorted one of him flying amidst fruits and vegetables. Media all too often love sensationalism.

In reference to the Singularity, he remarks that until recently, "its only been the province of science fiction authors such as Vernor Vinge and Ken MacLeod."

Declan is a great writer......I love his descriptions throughout......for example, "to appreciate the dizzying scope of Kurzweil's predictions, read the book. But the condensed version goes like this: Thanks to Moore's Law and other exponential growth rates, by 2030 a $1 computer will be as powerful as the human brain. Information technology's exponential curve will fuel advances in biology, robotics, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence--with world-shattering results including radical life extension and practically omniscient and omnipotent abilities for humans who elect self-augmentation."

With great flow and ease, he goes on, and includes a Q&A. He also asks questions around exponential growth as it relates to the stock market, which many at the recent Telecosm event, were also curious about.

Responds Ray, "It's the power and adoption of information technologies that moves exponentially. The stock market includes many businesses with old business models...You do have long-term exponential growth of the stock market. The measures we find are highly predictable, surprisingly so. But there are business cycles."

Rather than understand broader trends and what we can learn from it, and more importantly how we can prepare for it, people want specific predictions, one which will change their life positively forever......

Also from the article, another great point: "it's not a theory of the overall dynamics of the stock market, which have a lot of psychological aspects, some overly pessimistic and some overly optimistic."

Tag: Ray Kurzweil, Tag: Singularity

On the Music Business

This week's Nightly Business Report on NPR and Public TV hosted a special series on the Music Business. Background and description below.

"On December 6th, 1877, Thomas Edison shouted a nursery rhyme into his new talking machine. The recording industry was born. Over more than a century, the technology evolved from wax cylinder to shellac platter to long-playing vinyl to cassette tape to compact disc. But the business model remained the same: The artist recorded to the label`s satisfaction, the label did the manufacturing and handled the distribution, and the consumer could take it or leave it.

That changed in the mid-1990s, when personal computers got the ability to make digital compact discs. Unlike analog, digital recordings are simply computer data files, and the tools need to create, capture and manipulate digital music are inexpensive, high quality and widely available. Now, consumers can use the recording industry`s compact disc to create their own compilations, re-edit to produce derivative products, and yes, make perfect copies. When the cost of the blank needed for a copy fell to pennies, the industry`s business model fell apart.

If the ability to easily copy compact discs was a problem for the recording industry, Napster and other file-sharing systems were a disaster. Created in 1999, Napster let consumers freely trade the computer files of songs with others over the Internet. The artists, publishers and recording companies never saw a dime.

Nearly 40 million people were said to be using Napster when it shut down. And for every Napster that was shut down, another method to share files sprang up. The industry`s trade association sued thousands of people, mostly college students, to stop the practice. The lawsuits, tens of thousands by some counts, continue today."

Increasing Value of RSS

There's an interesting piece in the latest MediaPost on RSS Ads......"like e-mail, but without the spam." A spokesperson from Reprise Media suggests thinking about RSS like the new, but not-polluted e-mail. It's all opt-in and yes, it can be very targeted....I know, I use it every day for a variety of topics.

We're seeing more RSS advertising but it hasn't been as explosive as we'd like, mainly because end-user adoption always takes time.....but adoption is increasing and people are starting to really see the value.

Foresight Institute & Annual Event

I had the pleasure of spending some time with Scott Mize, the president of The Foresight Institute en route to and at the recent George Gilder conference.

A nonprofit, the Foresight Institute is all about the education and advancement of nanotechnology. They're doing some fabulous things, with a major goal of driving the beneficial implementation of nanotech. Their annual conference is approaching.....it spans across six days and will be held this year in San Francisco from October 22-27.

They plan to cover a broad array of topics over the course of the week, including:

* Meeting global energy needs with clean solutions
* Providing abundant clean water globally
* Increasing the health and longevity of human life
* Maximizing the productivity of agriculture
* Making powerful information technology available everywhere
* Enabling the development of space

VideoEgg Embraces On2's VP6 Video Compression

Today, client VideoEgg and On2 Technologies announce that VideoEgg's Publisher will embrace On2's VP6 Video Compression Technology for superior flash video image quality.

VideoEgg Publisher enables Internet users to quickly and easily capture, edit, encode, and upload video to a website via a simple online interface. Website visitors can then watch this high quality Flash 8 video with the Flash-based VideoEgg Player, a cross-platform, cross-browser player solution that doesn’t require conventional players like Windows Media Player or Quicktime.

The VideoEgg Publisher simplifies the difficult video encoding and posting process, allowing users to capture video directly into a Website from camcorders, Web cams, and mobile phones. It also accepts video files via a simple drag-and-drop interface.

On2 Video codecs are used extensively in the video-on-demand, videoconferencing, Internet media, surveillance, and store-and-play markets. They operate with On2's own TrueCast Server and Player software, as well as third-party player and server products.

Talking to Klein Gilhousen

Klein Gilhousen, co-founder of Qualcomm, is on the Gilder/Forbes stage in an evening fireside chat. He's also the VP of Technology, so has proclaimed that he is 'not marketing' therefore he references everything as an engineer would, though delicately and intelligently......and he keeps us awake, which is hard to do in a 'first-on' position after dinner.

Pork tenderloin, mashed potatoes and wine, and he's talking about what we need to get onto chips, when and why. George Gilder enters stage left to moderate a Q&A after his intro.

Brad Templeton, from the audience, asks a question around relaying and battery issues: Gilhousen responds: "The people that are doing relaying are having their battery used to help other people and we're thinking, 'what's the meaning of that?"

Some in the audience want to discuss Katrina......"how could we have been more prepared?"

Says Gilhousen, "You can build a tower, anywhere if you're willing to 'write a check for it." On rising to the occasion in such a disaster, remarkably, someone says, "doesn't 'someone' (i.e, a giant like Qualcomm with their pockets for example), always rise to the occasion. Both have southern accents - irrelvant of course, but an observation..........I agree, shouldn't 'someone' always rise to the occasion?

On Katrina and natural disasters, someone asks: "The first networks to go up were Red Cross.....is that perhaps because cellular is not the best approach? Another remarkable ??? He's defensive, how could he not be, given his position. But to be fair......and then......asks CEO of Wave Systems Steven Sprague (yup, son of Mr. Peter Sprague....)

"How can we code our phones, how do I announce that I have a problem, how can I track where the phone is within a day? i.e,. someone in a helicopter.......information needs to be collected within a fair range of my phone, within a mile or two miles.....In other words, if I can teach my phone, with the existing software in my phone today, with no hardware changes, there should be the ability to say 'I'm okay, I'm in trouble' - help me. It would seem to me that this could be part of a menu choice we could do relatively soon today."

Defensive again. Sure he's not marketing? He's diplomatic. He confirms, its a great idea. To be fair, it's a huge problem, but its good that we're having the conversation.